It's getting to be that time of year again... time for more Oscar predictions!

Following are some broad and early Oscar predictions for the major categories. I've included three levels of predictions: the "Leader" predictions are my picks for who will be nominated, "contenders" could easily move up between now and then, and "spoilers" have a shot at, gasp, spoiling the preceding predictions.

For those who care, I'll have my a revised version of predictions, with only two levels per category, in January...

BEST PICTURE

The Leaders:
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
in the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings
Moulin Rouge

The Contenders:
Ali
Amelie
Black Hawk Down
Memento
The Shipping News

The Spoilers:
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Iris
The Man Who Wasn't There
Monster's Ball
Mulholland Drive
BEST DIRECTOR

The Leaders:
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
Todd Field, in the Bedroom
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down

The Contenders:
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amelie
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge
Michael Mann, Ali
Cristopher Nolan, Memento

The Spoilers:Wes Anderson, The Royal Tenenbaums
Joel Coen, The Man Who Wasn't There
Jonathan Glazer, Sexy Beast
Lasse Hallstrom, The Shipping News
Steven Spielberg, A.I.

BEST ACTOR

The Leaders:Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Will Smith, Ali
Kevin Spacey, The Shipping News
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Tom Wilkinson, in the Bedroom

The Contenders:
Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Guy Pierce, Memento
Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There
Billy Bob Thornton, Monster's Ball

The Spoilers:
Jim Broadbent, Iris
Jim Carrey, The Majestic
Hugh Jackman, Kate & Leopold
Kevin Kline, Life As A House
Ewan McGregor, Moulin Rouge

BEST ACTRESS

The Leaders:
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Stockard Channing, The Business of Strangers
Judi Dench, Iris
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek, in the Bedroom

The Contenders:
Thora Birch, Ghost World
Cate Blanchett, Charlotte Gray
Nicole Kidman, The Others
Tilda Swinton, The Deep End
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jone's

The Spoilers:
Julianne Moore, The Shipping News
Hilary Swank, Affair of the Necklace
Audrey Tautou, Amelie
Sigourney Weaver, Heartbreakers
Reese Witherspoon, Legally Blonde

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Leaders:
Jim Broadbent, Iris
Steve Buscemi, Ghost WorldBen Kingsley, Sexy BeastMartin Landau, The MajesticJon Voight, Ali

The Contenders:Jim Broadbent, Moulin RougeHayden Christensen, Life as a HouseJamie Foxx, Ali Ed Harris, A Beautiful MindGoran Visnjic, The Deep End

The Spoilers:Peter Boyle, Monster's Ball
Dakota Fanning, I Am Sam
Michael Gambon, Gosford Park
Rupert Grint, Harry Potter
Billy Bob Thornton, Bandits

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Leaders:
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky
Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
Kate Winslet, Iris

The Contenders:
Judi Dench, The Shipping News
Brittany Murphy, Don't Say a Word
Miam Shor, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive
The Spoilers:Fionnula Flanagan, The Others
Julianne Moore, The Shipping News
Gwyneth Paltrow, The Royal Tenenbaums
Julia Stiles, The Business of Strangers
Emily Watson, Gosford Park
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Leaders:
Gosford Park
The Man Who Wasn't There
Memento
Mulholland Drive
The Royal Tenenbaums

The Contenders:
Ali
Amelie
Monster's Ball
Moulin Rouge
Sexy Beast

The Spoilers:
The Business of Strangers
Faithless
No Man's Land
The Others
Training Day

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Leaders:
A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World
in the BedroomThe Lord of the Rings
The Shipping News

The Contenders:Black Hawk Down
Bridget Jones's Diary
The Deep End
Iris
Lantana

The Spoilers:A.I.
Focus
Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Last Orders
Vanilla Sky

This entry has 5 comments:

Vanilla Sky was one of the worst movies I have ever seen, what are you talking about Tom Cruise or even Cameron Diaz were good in that movie? An extremely over-rated director named Cameron Crowe completely destroyed the wonderfully original and gorgeous spanish original.

Luke (02/15/2002 04:13 PM)

Heh. I wouldn't count Bratt out for a nomination though at this point I don't see it happening.

mark (01/02/2002 02:19 PM)

What about Benjamin Bratt in Pinero? His past relationship with Ms Overbite was a great acting lesson in itself.

PaGuy4U (01/02/2002 02:15 PM)

My predictions have little to nothing to do with acting recignition. More like buzz recognition. Among many factors, Diaz recently received a Golden Globe nomination for the role which means a lot when it comes to predicting what the Oscar race will wind up looking like. Cruise did not.

Mark (12/27/2001 02:05 PM)

Hmm... why is Cameron Diaz getting recognition for her acting in Vanilla Sky and Tom Cruise nothing? She was very good, but I thought Tom was amazing too. Hmm...

Bart (12/27/2001 01:56 PM)