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02/12/2002
Success!

Hooray!

With a total prediction rate of 76.8%, this year has been my best yet for Oscar noms. I tied last year's 80% correct for the top four categories and got a whopping 87.5%, my best to date, for the top eight.

Overall, my most succesful nomination prediction categories are for Actress, Supporting Actress and Visual Effects. My worst are Foreign Film, Make-Up and Sound Editing.

There were a few surprises this year, though less than expected. In the cases where I incorrectly predicted a nominee, 45% of the time I correctly predicted the actual nominee in my list of spoilers.

I've listed my predictions below. Correctly predicted nominees are listed in green, incorrect in red, nominated spoiler predictions are in blue and the rest of the not nominated but predicted as possible spoilers are in grey...

Picture

  1. A Beautiful Mind
  2. Lord of the Rings
  3. Black Hawk Down
  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. In the Bedroom


  6. Gosford Park
  7. Shrek
  8. Memento
  9. Harry Potter
  10. Amélie


Director

  1. Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Robert Altman (Gosford Park)
  3. Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings)
  4. Baz Luhrman (Moulin Rouge!)
  5. Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down)

  6. Christopher Nolan (Memento)
  7. David Lynch (Mulholland Drive)
  8. Todd Field (In the Bedroom)
  9. JeanPierre Jeunet (Amelie)
  10. Michael Mann (Ali)


Actor

  1. Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Denzel Washington (Training Day)
  3. Tom Wilkinson (In The Bedroom)
  4. Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums)
  5. Will Smith (Ali)

  6. Sean Penn (I Am Sam)
  7. Kevin Kline (Life as a House)
  8. Billy Bob Thornton (The Man Who Wasn't There)
  9. Kevin Spacey (The Shipping News)
  10. Guy Pierce (Memento)



Actress

  1. Sissy Spacek (In The Bedroom)
  2. Halle Berry (Monster's Ball)
  3. Judi Dench (Iris)
  4. Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary)
  5. Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge!)


  6. Naomi Watts (Mullholland Drive)
  7. Tilda Swinton (The Deep End)
  8. Nicole Kidman (The Others)
  9. Audrey Tautou (Amélie)
  10. Cate Blanchett (Charlotte Gray)


Original Screenplay

  1. Memento
  2. Gosford Park
  3. The Man Who Wasn't There
  4. The Royal Tenenbaums
  5. Monster's Ball

  6. Mullholland Drive
  7. Moulin Rouge!
  8. Amélie
  9. The Others
  10. Ali


Adapted Screenplay

  1. A Beautiful Mind
  2. In The Bedroom
  3. The Lord of the Rings
  4. Ghost World
  5. Shrek

  6. Black Hawk Down
  7. Bridget Jones' Diary
  8. Lantana
  9. The Shipping News
  10. Hedwig and the Angry Inch



Supporting Actor

  1. Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast)
  2. Jim Broadbent (Iris)
  3. Ian McKellen (Lord of the Rings)
  4. Jon Voight (Ali)
  5. Steve Buscemi (Ghost World)


  6. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House)
  7. Ethan Hawke (Training Day)
  8. Jude Law (A.I.)
  9. Tony Shaloub (The Man Who Wasn't There)
  10. Billy Bob Thornton (Bandits)



Supporting Actress

  1. Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Helen Mirren (Gosford Park)
  3. Maggie Smith (Gosford Park)
  4. Marisa Tomei (In The Bedroom)
  5. Kate Winslet (Iris)

  6. Judi Dench (The Shipping News)
  7. Cate Blanchett (Bandits)
  8. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky)
  9. Anjelica Houston (The Royal Tenenbaums)
  10. Emily Watson (Gosford Park)


Animated Feature

  1. Shrek
  2. Monster's, Inc
  3. Waking Life

  4. Jimmy Neutron
  5. Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within




Foreign

  1. Amélie (France)
  2. No Man's Land (Bosnia)
  3. The Son's Room (Italy)
  4. Behind the Sun (Brazil)
  5. Our Lady of the Assassins (Columbia)

  6. Italian For Beginers (Denmark)
  7. The Fast Runner (Canada)
  8. Lagaan (India)
  9. Dark Blue World (Czech Republic)
  10. Baran (Iran)



Cinematography

  1. The Man Who Wasn't There
  2. Lord of the Rings
  3. Moulin Rouge!
  4. Black Hawk Down
  5. A.I.


  6. Amélie
  7. Pearl Harbor
  8. Mulholland Drive
  9. A Beautiful Mind
  10. Memento


Original Score

  1. Lord of the Rings
  2. A Beautiful Mind
  3. A.I.
  4. Amélie
  5. Mullholland Drive

  6. Gosford Park
  7. Moulin Rouge!
  8. Harry Potter
  9. Pearl Harbor
  10. The Shipping News


Original Song

  1. Until (Kate & Leopold)
  2. Vanilla Sky (Vanilla Sky)
  3. There You'll Be (Pearl Harbor)
  4. May It Be (Lord of the Rings)
  5. If I Didn't Have You (Monsters Inc.)

  6. All Love Can Be (A Beautiful Mind)



Film Editing

  1. Black Hawk Down
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. Memento
  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. A Beautiful Mind

  6. Gosford Park
  7. A.I.
  8. Ali



Sound Design

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. Black Hawk Down
  3. Moulin Rouge!
  4. Pearl Harbor
  5. Shrek

  6. The Fast and the Furious
  7. Ali
  8. The Others
  9. A Beautiful Mind
  10. A.I.



Sound Effects Editing

  1. Black Hawk Down
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. The Fast and the Furious

  4. Pearl Harbor
  5. A.I.




Visual Effects

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. A.I.
  3. Pearl Harbor

  4. Harry Potter
  5. Black Hawk Down
  6. Cats and Dogs


Art & Set Direction

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. Moulin Rouge!
  3. A.I.
  4. Harry Potter
  5. Gosford Park

  6. Amélie
  7. Black Hawk Down
  8. The Man Who Wasn't There
  9. The Shipping News
  10. The Others


Costume Design

  1. Moulin Rouge!
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. Planet of the Apes
  4. Harry Potter
  5. Gosford Park

  6. Hedwig and the Angry Inch
  7. The Affair of the Necklace
  8. The Man Who Wasn't There
  9. The Royal Tenenbaums
  10. From Hell


Make-Up

  1. Planet of the Apes
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. A.I.

  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. Harry Potter


Documentary Feature

  1. My Khmer Heart
  2. A Child's Century of War
  3. We Stand Alone Together
  4. Children Underground
  5. Lalee's Kin

  6. Calle 541
  7. In Cane for Life
  8. My Voyage to Italy
  9. Dogtown and Z Boys
  10. War Photographer

Film
Pred.
Actual
Lord of the Rings  14
 13
Moulin Rouge!   8
  8
A Beautiful Mind   7
  8
Gosford Park   6
  7
A.I.   5
  2
In the Bedroom   5
  5
Pearl Harbor   3
  4
Iris   3
  3
Amélie   2
  5
Ali   2
  2
The Man Who...   2
  1
Harry Potter   2
  3
Memento   2
  2
The Royal...   2
  1
Shrek   2
  2
Planet of the Apes   2
  1
Ghost World   2
  4
Monster's Ball   2
  2
Monsters, Inc.   2
  3



This entry has 1 Comment:

It looks like I did better than nearly all the other prediction lists I've kept an eye on for years including Entertainment Weekly, Zeusefer, Sijmen and Alex.Cool!

Mark (02/13/2002 07:20 AM)



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