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Final Oscar Predictions

What follows are my final Oscar predictions (and some update commentary) for this year's Oscar race.

As always, these predictions have little to nothing to do with who deserves the award. These are my predictions for who I believe has the best shots at taking home a statue.

All rankings are in order of who has the better chance of winning to the worst. #1's, in green, are my prediction for who will win the category. Nominees in blue are possible spoilers, nominees in orange have little chance of winning, and nominees in red are my picks for those who should get very comfortable with the phrase, "It was an honor just to be nominated."


  1. A Beautiful Mind 28/25
  2. The Lord of the Rings 33/17
  3. Moulin Rouge 41/14
  4. Gosford Park 27/7
  5. In the Bedroom 33/7

Once again, Mind pulls ahead as Lord falls behind, furthering the gap between first and second. Moulin picks up speed, though short of what would be needed for an upset. Gosford pulls back as Bedroom picks up the pace at the last minute though not enough to even move into fourth.


  1. Russell Crowe 3/2
  2. Denzel Washington 8/5
  3. Tom Wilkinson 23/7
  4. Will Smith 4/1
  5. Sean Penn 9/2

Prepare for the photo finsh as Crowe slips back and Washington movesforward. I'm still giving the slight edge to Crowe. The rest of the pack has not changed pace since last commentary.


  1. Sissy Spacek 27/20
  2. Halle Berry 33/17
  3. Nicole Kidman 21/8
  4. Judi Dench 47/12
  5. Rene Zellweger 59/12

Berry continues to benefit from her momentum and Spaceck's falling behind. The gap between this first and second and the Best Actor first and second is greater, though either could easily win just the same. The rest remain in their same positions except for Zellweger who moves ahead by a smidge though clearly she'll remain in fifth.


  1. Ian McKellen 9/8
  2. Jim Broadbent 19/8
  3. Ben Kingsley 23/9
  4. Ethan Hawke 4/1
  5. Jon Voight 37/8

The pack stays roughly the same though Broadbent and Voight slow in the final stretch. McKellen maintains enough of a lead to nearly guarantee first.


  1. Jennifer Connelly even
  2. Helen Mirren 7/3
  3. Maggie Smith 16/5
  4. Kate Winslet 41/11
  5. Marisa Tomei 56/13

Conelly has remained in first for a very long time and will no doubt win. A good distance behind are Mirren and Smith, both gaining ground. Winslet and Tomei slip farther back.


  1. Ron Howard 14/9
  2. Robert Altman 27/14
  3. Peter Jackson 9/4
  4. Ridley Scott 25/6
  5. David Lynch 29/6

Jackson's moving slightly faster as Howard and Altman, still neck and neck, slow in pace a bit.


  1. Memento 15/11
  2. Gosford Park 3/2
  3. Amelie 34/9
  4. Monster's Ball 4/1
  5. The Royal Tenenbaums 33/8

Amelie is the only nominee to gain some speed in the final stretch as the rest of the pack continues at the same pace as before.


  1. A Beautiful Mind 15/14
  2. In the Bedroom 32/13
  3. The Lord of the Rings 21/8
  4. Shrek 41/11
  5. Ghost World 54/11

Bedroom catches up and takes second place to Amelie's third in the final rush for the finish. Mind stays ahead pretty comfortably, maintaining it's speed.


  1. Amelie 7/6
  2. No Mans Land 2/1
  3. Lagaan 8/3
  4. Son of the Bride 4/1
  5. Elling 19/4

Amelie falls back a bit as Land moves slightly faster. Still looks like Amelie will win but Land has an even greater chance at spoiling.


  1. Shrek even
  2. Monster's, Inc 19/10
  3. Jimmy Neutron 3/1

More of the same, though Monster loses an extremely small amount of speed.


  1. For the Birds 1/1
  2. Fifty Percent Grey 8/3
  3. Stubble Trouble 3/1
  4. Give Up Yer Aul Sins 3/1
  5. Strange Invaders 11/3

Sins moves faster as the rest stay the same, though Birds maintains a comfortable lead in first.


  1. Copy Shop 7/4
  2. Gregor's Greatest Invention 2/1
  3. A Man Thing 7/3
  4. Speed for Thespians 14/5
  5. The Accountant3/1

The accountant picks up its' pace as the rest stay the same.


  1. Promises 11/7
  2. Lalee's Kin 2/1
  3. Children Underground 2/1
  4. Murder on a Sunday Morning 11/4
  5. War Photographer 10/3

Promises gains some speed as the rest stay the same.


  1. Artists and Orphans 11/8
  2. Sing! 8/5
  3. Thoth 2/1

Artists and Sing pull ahead as Thoth maintains its' speed.


  1. Moulin Rouge 15/11
  2. The Lord of the Rings 7/5
  3. Gosford Park 11/4
  4. Amélie 11/3
  5. Harry Potter 14/3

Another extremely close race to the finish as Rouge loses ground and Lord gains. This is easily the closest race between first and second of all categories this year.


  1. The Man Who Wasn't There 13/12
  2. The Lord of the Rings 5/3
  3. Moulin Rouge 7/2
  4. Black Hawk Down 4/1
  5. Amélie 4/1

Lord continues to pick up its pace as The Man once again falls back a bit.


  1. Moulin Rouge even
  2. The Lord of the Rings 13/7
  3. Gosford Park 11/4
  4. Harry Potter 19/5
  5. The Affair of the Necklace 29/2

The pack maintains their pace except for Lord who speeds up again.


  1. Moulin Rouge 5/3
  2. The Lord of the Rings 12/7
  3. Black Hawk Down 2/1
  4. Memento 5/2
  5. A Beautiful Mind 13/4

Black Hawk moves closer to surpassing Lord for second. Memento also gains speed while the rest stay the same.


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A Beautiful Mind 2/1
  3. Moulin Rouge 12/5

Rouge gains speed as the other two stay at the same pace as before.


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
  3. Monsters, Inc. 15/5
  4. A.I. 47/12
  5. Harry Potter 4/1

Monster moves up a spot to third place as A.I. falls behind. Lord should easily win this race.


  1. Kate & Leopold 4/3
  2. Vanilla Sky 11/6
  3. The Lord of the Rings 19/7
  4. Monsters, Inc. 29/8
  5. Pearl Harbor 36/7

The entire pack loses speed except for Kate who is only getting faster in the final stretch.


  1. The Lord of the Rings 4/3
  2. Black Hawk Down 11/6
  3. Pearl Harbor 11/5
  4. Moulin Rouge 11/4
  5. Amélie 14/3

Moulin and Amelie maintain pace as the rest gain some speed.


  1. Pearl Harbor 13/10
  2. Monsters, Inc. 3/2

Pearl moves ahead as Monster pulls back.


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A.I. 13/7
  3. Pearl Harbor 5/2

A.I. loses ground as Pearl gains, though Lord will take this race to the bank.

So, I'm predicting A Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings will each walk away with five awards each as Moulin takes home three, the only other film to bring home multiple awards. Lord leads the spoiler pack with five second placepicks. Gosford stands in second place three times with Mind twice. Finally,Mind, Amelie, Harry Potter and Pearl are tied with two last place picks each.

Come back tomorrow for to see how I did, and how much better (or worse) I did this year compared to other years!

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