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Final (Really) Oscar Nom. Predictions

I should have known better than to give last week's Oscar predictions too soon.

Things have been moving in the final stretch. What follows are my final Oscar nominee predictions...

Here's what the leader board looks like - only films with two or more predicted nominations are listed:

Lord of the Rings   14
Moulin Rouge!    8
A Beautiful Mind    7
Gosford Park    6
A.I.    5
In the Bedroom    5
Pearl Harbor    3
Iris    3
Amélie    2
Ali    2
The Man Who...    2
Harry Potter    2
Memento    2
The Royal...    2
Shrek    2
Planet of the Apes    2
Ghost World    2
Monster's Ball    2
Monsters, Inc.    2


  1. A Beautiful Mind
  2. Lord of the Rings
  3. Black Hawk Down
  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. In the Bedroom

  6. Gosford Park
  7. Shrek
  8. Memento
  9. Harry Potter
  10. Amélie

The top five all appear to have locks for nominations.


  1. Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Robert Altman (Gosford Park)
  3. Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings)
  4. Baz Luhrman (Moulin Rouge!)
  5. Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down)

  6. Christopher Nolan (Memento)
  7. David Lynch (Mulholland Drive)
  8. Todd Field (In the Bedroom)
  9. JeanPierre Jeunet (Amelie)
  10. Michael Mann (Ali)

The top four are locks. Scott is, as well, though Nolan and Lynch are very unlikely spoilers.


  1. Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Denzel Washington (Training Day)
  3. Tom Wilkinson (In The Bedroom)
  4. Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums)
  5. Will Smith (Ali)

  6. Sean Penn (I Am Sam)
  7. Kevin Kline (Life as a House)
  8. Billy Bob Thornton (The Man Who Wasn't There)
  9. Kevin Spacey (The Shipping News)
  10. Guy Pierce (Memento)

Crowe, Washington and Wilkinson are locks. Hackman and Smith, whose chances are quickly increasing in the final stretch, and Penn are tied for the final two slots. Penn can easily bump either of the other two out of a nom slot. Kline's a much less likely spoiler..


  1. Sissy Spacek (In The Bedroom)
  2. Halle Berry (Monster's Ball)
  3. Judi Dench (Iris)
  4. Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary)
  5. Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge!)

  6. Naomi Watts (Mullholland Drive)
  7. Tilda Swinton (The Deep End)
  8. Nicole Kidman (The Others)
  9. Audrey Tautou (Amélie)
  10. Cate Blanchett (Charlotte Gray)

Spacek and Berry are locks. Dench is virtually locked, as well. Zellweger and Kidman (for Rouge) are tied and should get the final two nods.

Original Screenplay

  1. Memento
  2. Gosford Park
  3. The Man Who Wasn't There
  4. The Royal Tenenbaums
  5. Monster's Ball

  6. Mullholland Drive
  7. Moulin Rouge!
  8. Amélie
  9. The Others
  10. Ali

Memento and Gosford are sure things. The Man and Tenenbaums appear to have pulled out enough of a lead for a locked nomination. Monster's Ball currently has the best shot at the final spot. Mullholland and Moulin may spoil.

Adapted Screenplay

  1. A Beautiful Mind
  2. In The Bedroom
  3. The Lord of the Rings
  4. Ghost World
  5. Shrek

  6. Black Hawk Down
  7. Bridget Jones' Diary
  8. Lantana
  9. The Shipping News
  10. Hedwig and the Angry Inch

Mind, Bedroom and Rings have solid noms. Ghost and Shrek seem pretty sure with Diary and Black Hawk in the wings.

Supporting Actor

  1. Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast)
  2. Jim Broadbent (Iris)
  3. Ian McKellen (Lord of the Rings)
  4. Jon Voight (Ali)
  5. Steve Buscemi (Ghost World)

  6. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House)
  7. Ethan Hawke (Training Day)
  8. Jude Law (A.I.)
  9. Tony Shaloub (The Man Who Wasn't There)
  10. Billy Bob Thornton (Bandits)

Kingsley and Broadbent will be nominated. McKellen and Voight should be, as well. Christensen and Buscemi fight it out for the final slot.

Supporting Actress

  1. Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind)
  2. Helen Mirren (Gosford Park)
  3. Maggie Smith (Gosford Park)
  4. Marisa Tomei (In The Bedroom)
  5. Kate Winslet (Iris)

  6. Judi Dench (The Shipping News)
  7. Cate Blanchett (Bandits)
  8. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky)
  9. Anjelica Houston (The Royal Tenenbaums)
  10. Emily Watson (Gosford Park)

This race is pretty well determined as the top five are very far ahead of the spoiler pack.

Animated Feature

  1. Shrek
  2. Monster's, Inc
  3. Waking Life

  4. Jimmy Neutron
  5. Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within


  1. Amélie (France)
  2. No Man's Land (Bosnia)
  3. The Son's Room (Italy)
  4. Behind the Sun (Brazil)
  5. Our Lady of the Assassins (Columbia)

  6. Italian For Beginers (Denmark)
  7. The Fast Runner (Canada)
  8. Lagaan (India)
  9. Dark Blue World (Czech Republic)
  10. Baran (Iran)


  1. The Man Who Wasn't There
  2. Lord of the Rings
  3. Moulin Rouge!
  4. Black Hawk Down
  5. A.I.

  6. Amélie
  7. Pearl Harbor
  8. Mulholland Drive
  9. A Beautiful Mind
  10. Memento

Less likely spoilers include: Mulholland Drive, Ali, and The Shipping News.

Original Score

  1. Lord of the Rings
  2. A Beautiful Mind
  3. A.I.
  4. Amélie
  5. Mullholland Drive

  6. Gosford Park
  7. Moulin Rouge!
  8. Harry Potter
  9. Pearl Harbor
  10. The Shipping News

Original Song

  1. Until (Kate & Leopold)
  2. Vanilla Sky (Vanilla Sky)
  3. There You'll Be (Pearl Harbor)
  4. May It Be (Lord of the Rings)
  5. If I Didn't Have You (Monsters Inc.)

  6. All Love Can Be (A Beautiful Mind)

Film Editing

  1. Black Hawk Down
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. Memento
  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. A Beautiful Mind

  6. Gosford Park
  7. A.I.
  8. Ali

Sound Design

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. Black Hawk Down
  3. Moulin Rouge!
  4. Pearl Harbor
  5. Shrek

  6. The Fast and the Furious
  7. Ali
  8. The Others
  9. A Beautiful Mind
  10. A.I.

Sound Effects Editing

  1. Black Hawk Down
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. The Fast and the Furious

  4. Pearl Harbor
  5. A.I.

Visual Effects

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. A.I.
  3. Pearl Harbor

  4. Harry Potter
  5. Black Hawk Down
  6. Cats and Dogs

Art & Set Direction

  1. The Lord of the Rings
  2. Moulin Rouge!
  3. A.I.
  4. Harry Potter
  5. Gosford Park

  6. Amélie
  7. Black Hawk Down
  8. The Man Who Wasn't There
  9. The Shipping News
  10. The Others

Costume Design

  1. Moulin Rouge!
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. Planet of the Apes
  4. Harry Potter
  5. Gosford Park

  6. Hedwig and the Angry Inch
  7. The Affair of the Necklace
  8. The Man Who Wasn't There
  9. The Royal Tenenbaums
  10. From Hell


  1. Planet of the Apes
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. A.I.

  4. Moulin Rouge!
  5. Harry Potter

Documentary Feature

  1. My Khmer Heart
  2. A Child's Century of War
  3. We Stand Alone Together
  4. Children Underground
  5. Lalee's Kin

  6. Calle 541
  7. In Cane for Life
  8. My Voyage to Italy
  9. Dogtown and Z Boys
  10. War Photographer

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