It's that time again! Time for the first round of my Oscar winner predictions...

As it currently stands, I predict only two films will go home with more than one award. Those two should provide a very interesting race this year!

As always, these predictions have little to nothing to do with who deserves the award. These are my predictions for who I believe has the best shots at taking home a statue.

All rankings are in order of who has the better chance of winning to the worst. #1's, in green, are my prediction for who will win the category. Nominees in blue are possible spoilers, nominees in orange have little chance of winning, and nominees in red are my picks for those who should get very comfortable with the phrase, "It was an honor just to be nominated."

I'll make revisions to this list based on the latest movement before my final winner nominations are posted. This is what the race looks like at this point:

BEST MOTION PICTURE

1. A Beautiful Mind
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. In the Bedroom
4. Moulin Rouge
5. Gosford Park

The big battle this year seems to be Buzz vs. Noms. Lord of the Rings topples A Beautiful Mind in the nomination count (statistically an incredible predictor of Best Picture winners) though Mind still seems to have the upper hand, at this point.

The Academy doesn't like to pick film fantasies in this category. In fact they never have, though this would be a good choice to break that shut out. Lord will take home an impressive amount of statues by the end of the evening. But at this point I'd give the edge to A Beautiful Mind.

BEST ACTOR

1. Russell Crowe
2. Denzel Washington
3. Tom Wilkinson
4. Will Smith
5. Sean Penn

Look for the Academy to ride the Beautiful Mind "sweep" by awarding Crowe his second Best Actor win in a row. But right behind him is Washington who is gaining momentum and could easily move to the top, especially after losing the award with Malcolm X and The Hurricane.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Sissy Spacek
2. Nicole Kidman
3. Halle Berry
4. Rene Zellweger
5. Judi Dench

Spacek's lead has maintined for some time. It's not as clear cut as some assume, however. Though Zellweger and Dench are out of the race, Kidman and Berry are neck in neck behind Spaceck.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jim Broadbent
2. Ian McKellen
3. Ben Kingsley
4. Jon Voight
5. Ethan Hawke

In the final stretch, Broadbent's lead continues to increase (though he could easily have another chance next year with Gangs of New York) as Kingsley's loses steam. Don't count out Kingsley or McKellen, tied for second just behind Broadbent.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Connelly
2. Maggie Smith
3. Helen Mirren
4. Kate Winslet
5. Marisa Tomei

Smith and Mirren's positions are slowly lowering as Tomei and Winslet slowy rise. Even so, Connelly's win is one of few sure things in this year's Oscar race.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Ron Howard
2. Peter Jackson
3. Robert Altman
4. Ridley Scott
5. David Lynch

This is a three way race. Scott and Lynch should hold off on writing too much of an acceptance speech. But the other three should get cracking. Howard's currently got the edge as Altman's lingering is hurting Jackson's chances.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Memento
2. Gosford Park
3. The Royal Tenenbaums
4. Amelie
5. Monster's Ball

Memento should walk away with this one easily, though Gosford could spoil with a come from behind win as it's chances have slightly increased recently.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. A Beautiful Mind
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. In the Bedroom
4. Shrek
5. Ghost World

Mind has the edge. Lord probably not. Bedroom's a darkhorse.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Amelie
2. No Mans Land
3. Lagaan
4. Son of the Bride
5. Elling

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1. Shrek
2. Monster's, Inc
3. Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genious

ART DIRECTION

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. Gosford Park
3. Moulin Rouge
4. Amélie
5. Harry Potter

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Man Who Wasn't There
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. Amélie
4. Moulin Rouge
5. Black Hawk Down

Deakins (Man) is well loved and this is the ideal time for the the Academy to reward him unless Lord comes up with a technical sweep.

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Moulin Rouge
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. Gosford Park
4. Harry Potter
5. The Affair of the Necklace

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Promises
2. Children Underground
3. Lalee's Kin
4. Murder on a Sunday Morning
5. War Photographer

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Thoth
2. Artists and Orphans: A True Drama
3. Sing!

FILM EDITING

1. Moulin Rouge
2. Black Hawk Down
3. The Lord of the Rings
4. A Beautiful Mind
5. Memento

MAKE-UP

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. A Beautiful Mind
3. Moulin Rouge

MUSIC (SCORE)

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. A Beautiful Mind
3. A.I.
4. Monsters, Inc.
5. Harry Potter

Lord's Shore has never been nominated despite scoring an incredible amount of films. Career achievement?

MUSIC (SONG)

1. Kate & Leopold
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. Vanilla Sky
4. Monsters, Inc.
5. Pearl Harbor

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

1. For the Birds
2. Fifty Percent Grey
3. Give Up Yer Aul Sins
4. Stubble Trouble
5. Strange Invaders

Pixar does well in this category and since it looks like they have little chance at an Animated Feature win the Academy will want to give them something.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

1. Gregor's Greatest Invention
2. A Man Thing
3. Copy Shop
4. Speed for Thespians
5. The Accountant

SOUND

1. Pearl Harbor
2. Black Hawk Down
3. The Lord of the Rings
4. Moulin Rouge
5. Amélie

SOUND EDITING

1. Pearl Harbor
2. Monsters, Inc.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Lord of the Rings
2. A.I.
3. Pearl Harbor

This entry has 2 comments:

Sorry Al, Tomei and Dench continue to stand very little, if any, chance at a win. But thanks for your two cents! :)

Mark (03/24/2002 01:39 AM)

You are definitely right in many areas, but Marisa Tomei and Judi Dench have a better chance of winning than those you placed in orange in their respective categories. Just thought I would include my two cents.

Al (03/11/2002 11:23 PM)