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Oscar prediction update...

Here's an update to my previous Oscar standings. I've also included my odds for winning standings to the right of each nominee. Look for my final predictions by next Saturday...


  1. A Beautiful Mind 9/8
  2. The Lord of the Rings 15/8
  3. Moulin Rouge 3/1
  4. Gosford Park 15/4
  5. In the Bedroom 19/4

Mind pulls ahead as Lord falls behind, further cementing the win for Mind as Moulin and Gosford slowly gain some footing, though not nearly enough to surpass even Lord.


  1. Russell Crowe 13/9
  2. Denzel Washington 5/3
  3. Tom Wilkinson 23/7
  4. Will Smith 4/1
  5. Sean Penn 9/2

Crowe slips slightly back as Washington gains some momentum, though not enough to lock a win... yet. Wilkinson moves up slightly as Smith and Penn fall further and further back.


  1. Sissy Spacek 9/7
  2. Halle Berry 2/1
  3. Nicole Kidman 21/8
  4. Judi Dench 47/12
  5. Rene Zellweger 5/1

Spacek's lock is long gone, though she holds a decent lead still ahead of Berry who is quickly gaining speed. Though Kidman falls back slightly she still trails just behind Berry.


  1. Ian McKellen 9/8
  2. Jim Broadbent 7/3
  3. Ben Kingsley 23/9
  4. Ethan Hawke 4/1
  5. Jon Voight 37/8

McKellen increases his lead ahead of Broadbent and Kingsley who are both losing considerable ground. Hawke creeps slightly ahead though not nearly enough to catch up.


  1. Jennifer Connelly even
  2. Helen Mirren 7/3
  3. Maggie Smith 16/5
  4. Kate Winslet 15/4
  5. Marisa Tomei 13/3

Conelly hasn't budged at all. Neither has Winslet who, along with Tomei, continue to be sure misses. Mirren moves ahead slightly though most definitely not enough to surpass Connelly.


  1. Ron Howard 14/9
  2. Robert Altman 15/8
  3. Peter Jackson 7/3
  4. Ridley Scott 25/6
  5. David Lynch 29/6

Jackson falls behind, though still far ahead of Scott and Lynch. Both Howard and Altman have increased there leads with Howard just ahead of Altman.


  1. Memento 6/5
  2. Gosford Park 3/2
  3. Amelie 35/9
  4. Monster's Ball 4/1
  5. The Royal Tenenbaums 4/1

Memento falls behind as Gosford gains speed. Tenenbaums falls to last place as Amelie jumps to the third slot in the final stretch.


  1. A Beautiful Mind 15/14
  2. The Lord of the Rings 5/2
  3. In the Bedroom 8/3
  4. Shrek 11/3
  5. Ghost World 29/6

Four of the five have fained momentum since last month allowing Mind to gain even more momentum as Lord falls behind. Bedroom is catching up to possibly take second place.


  1. Amelie 12/11
  2. No Mans Land 19/9
  3. Lagaan 8/3
  4. Son of the Bride 11/3
  5. Elling 29/6

Amelie and Land lose some footing as Lagaan creeps up behind.


  1. Shrek even
  2. Monster's, Inc 19/10
  3. Jimmy Neutron 3/1

This category remains simply stagnant with the exception of Monster's pulling slightly ahead of it's position last month.


  1. For the Birds 1/1
  2. Fifty Percent Grey 8/3
  3. Stubble Trouble 3/1
  4. Give Up Yer Aul Sins 3/1
  5. Strange Invaders 11/3

Birds remains the same as Grey falls behind.


  1. Copy Shop 7/4
  2. Gregor's Greatest Invention 2/1
  3. A Man Thing 7/3
  4. Speed for Thespians 14/5
  5. The Accountant3/1

Copy Shop pulls ahead farther as it's competition loses standing.


  1. Promises 5/3
  2. Lalee's Kin 2/1
  3. Children Underground 2/1
  4. Murder on a Sunday Morning 11/4
  5. War Photographer 10/3

Promises chances lessen as Lalee's moves ahead. Tied with Lalee's is Underground which is now starting to lose some ground.


  1. Artists and Orphans 11/8
  2. Sing! 7/4
  3. Thoth 2/1

Artists pulls ahead, though right behind is Sing!


  1. Moulin Rouge 7/5
  2. The Lord of the Rings 7/5
  3. Gosford Park 11/4
  4. Amélie 11/3
  5. Harry Potter 14/3

Looks to be a photo finish with Moulin and Lord neck and neck.


  1. The Man Who Wasn't There 11/10
  2. The Lord of the Rings 5/3
  3. Moulin Rouge 7/2
  4. Black Hawk Down 4/1
  5. Amélie 4/1

The Man remains the leader as Lord in second picks up its pace.


  1. Moulin Rouge even
  2. The Lord of the Rings 2/1
  3. Gosford Park 11/4
  4. Harry Potter 19/5
  5. The Affair of the Necklace 29/2

Gosford picks up a little speed, though not enough to upset Moulin and Lord remaining one and two.


  1. Moulin Rouge 5/3
  2. The Lord of the Rings 12/7
  3. Black Hawk Down 11/5
  4. Memento 5/2
  5. A Beautiful Mind 13/14

Lord gains as Moulin falls. Lord looks to surpass Moulin very soon as Black Hawk falls behind.


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
  3. Moulin Rouge 12/5

Lord remains strong though Mind gains some speed. Tied with Mind is Moulin which begins losing ground.


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
  3. A.I. 3/1
  4. Monsters, Inc. 11/3
  5. Harry Potter 4/1

Lord and A.I. remain stagnant at one and three with Mind at number two losing ground.


  1. Kate & Leopold 13/3
  2. Vanilla Sky 8/5
  3. The Lord of the Rings 2/1
  4. Monsters, Inc. 14/5
  5. Pearl Harbor 13/3

Lord stays the same directly behind Vanilla which gains speed as Kate, still in first, loses.


  1. The Lord of the Rings 11/8
  2. Black Hawk Down 11/6
  3. Pearl Harbor 11/5
  4. Moulin Rouge 11/4
  5. Amélie 14/3

Lord and Black gain even more of a lead behind the rest of the pack with Pearl and Moulin, both losing ground.


  1. Pearl Harbor 13/10
  2. Monsters, Inc. 3/2

This is a neck and neck race with both contenders gaining ground over last month. Anything can happen here so far...


  1. The Lord of the Rings even
  2. A.I. 13/7
  3. Pearl Harbor 5/2

Lord stays the same as A.I. and Pearl gain. Pearl has little chance to move up though A.I. still has a chance...

This entry has 3 comments:

The buzz behind the "negative campaign" shouldn't have had nearly the effect much of the media suggested it did.

Usually Oscar buzz is a product of the voting as opposed to it effecting how one votes. Buzz can surely peak after the voting deadline has past, as can be seen in my final picks compared to picks before the deadline.

Variety (Daily o,r at least, Weekly) is great for getting a feel for how the race is going both in the articles and the advertising. http://www.awn.com/ is an interesting site for animation.

Momentum is determined by the media, box office, reviews, Oscar history, a select group of critics, advertising.

If extra-sensory perception had anything to do with it I'd no doubt offer a modified version of my predictions. I try to stay away from that so if I'm wrong I don't blame it on me. It's all their fault, not mine! ;-)

Mark (03/24/2002 01:26 AM)

How do you come up with the momentum? Buzz in media or some extra-sensory perception?

Edmond (03/17/2002 08:49 PM)

Fascinated, as always. Have a few questions for you:

1. Do you think the whole BEAUTIFUL MIND negative "campaign" (if that's what it was) won't hurt it's chances? Do you think they were prepared for it, based on what happened to THE HURRICANE?

2. I read somewhere that the final deadline for Oscar ballots is the 19th. Are most voters still filling out their ballots at this late date? Is it possible for buzz to build on someone (eg, Halle Berry), but to peak AFTER most ballots have already been turned in?

3. Where do you hear any kind of buzz about the shorts and the documentaries? Is there some kind of insider site that I should be reading?

Bill (03/17/2002 11:00 AM)

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