Archives: March 2002

Sunday, March 31, 2002

In a very unusual way...

02:27 AM PST [Link] [2 comments]

Monday, March 25, 2002

:)

11:38 PM PST [Link] [Comment on this]

Sunday, March 24, 2002

The good news this year's Oscars came to a much more interesting finish than in past years. The bad news is that put a major cramp in my final predictions.

This year I faired 50% in all categories, the top 8 and the top 5. Compared to last year's 61%, 75% and 75%. I did, however, increase my all time odds in many categories. Lord and Mind did indeed tie for the most awards won though both went home with one less than I predicted.

Oh well. Until next year Actually, until Tony noms in a few weeks...

I will make some year ahead of time predictions that the following films look to be top contenders for next year's Oscars:

• Gangs of New York
• Catch Me If You Can
• Minority Report
• The Lord of the Rings II
• Chicago
• Roberto Benigni's Pinocchio
• Ripley's Game
• The Hours
• Waking Up in Reno

10:12 PM PST [Link] [Comment on this]

What follows are my final Oscar predictions (and some update commentary) for this year's Oscar race.

As always, these predictions have little to nothing to do with who deserves the award. These are my predictions for who I believe has the best shots at taking home a statue.

All rankings are in order of who has the better chance of winning to the worst. #1's, in green, are my prediction for who will win the category. Nominees in blue are possible spoilers, nominees in orange have little chance of winning, and nominees in red are my picks for those who should get very comfortable with the phrase, "It was an honor just to be nominated."

BEST PICTURE

1. A Beautiful Mind 28/25
2. The Lord of the Rings 33/17
3. Moulin Rouge 41/14
4. Gosford Park 27/7
5. In the Bedroom 33/7

Once again, Mind pulls ahead as Lord falls behind, furthering the gap between first and second. Moulin picks up speed, though short of what would be needed for an upset. Gosford pulls back as Bedroom picks up the pace at the last minute though not enough to even move into fourth.

BEST ACTOR

1. Russell Crowe 3/2
2. Denzel Washington 8/5
3. Tom Wilkinson 23/7
4. Will Smith 4/1
5. Sean Penn 9/2

Prepare for the photo finsh as Crowe slips back and Washington movesforward. I'm still giving the slight edge to Crowe. The rest of the pack has not changed pace since last commentary.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Sissy Spacek 27/20
2. Halle Berry 33/17
3. Nicole Kidman 21/8
4. Judi Dench 47/12
5. Rene Zellweger 59/12

Berry continues to benefit from her momentum and Spaceck's falling behind. The gap between this first and second and the Best Actor first and second is greater, though either could easily win just the same. The rest remain in their same positions except for Zellweger who moves ahead by a smidge though clearly she'll remain in fifth.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ian McKellen 9/8
2. Jim Broadbent 19/8
3. Ben Kingsley 23/9
4. Ethan Hawke 4/1
5. Jon Voight 37/8

The pack stays roughly the same though Broadbent and Voight slow in the final stretch. McKellen maintains enough of a lead to nearly guarantee first.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Connelly even
2. Helen Mirren 7/3
3. Maggie Smith 16/5
4. Kate Winslet 41/11
5. Marisa Tomei 56/13

Conelly has remained in first for a very long time and will no doubt win. A good distance behind are Mirren and Smith, both gaining ground. Winslet and Tomei slip farther back.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Ron Howard 14/9
2. Robert Altman 27/14
3. Peter Jackson 9/4
4. Ridley Scott 25/6
5. David Lynch 29/6

Jackson's moving slightly faster as Howard and Altman, still neck and neck, slow in pace a bit.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Memento 15/11
2. Gosford Park 3/2
3. Amelie 34/9
4. Monster's Ball 4/1
5. The Royal Tenenbaums 33/8

Amelie is the only nominee to gain some speed in the final stretch as the rest of the pack continues at the same pace as before.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. A Beautiful Mind 15/14
2. In the Bedroom 32/13
3. The Lord of the Rings 21/8
4. Shrek 41/11
5. Ghost World 54/11

Bedroom catches up and takes second place to Amelie's third in the final rush for the finish. Mind stays ahead pretty comfortably, maintaining it's speed.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Amelie 7/6
2. No Mans Land 2/1
3. Lagaan 8/3
4. Son of the Bride 4/1
5. Elling 19/4

Amelie falls back a bit as Land moves slightly faster. Still looks like Amelie will win but Land has an even greater chance at spoiling.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1. Shrek even
2. Monster's, Inc 19/10
3. Jimmy Neutron 3/1

More of the same, though Monster loses an extremely small amount of speed.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. For the Birds 1/1
2. Fifty Percent Grey 8/3
3. Stubble Trouble 3/1
4. Give Up Yer Aul Sins 3/1
5. Strange Invaders 11/3

Sins moves faster as the rest stay the same, though Birds maintains a comfortable lead in first.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Copy Shop 7/4
2. Gregor's Greatest Invention 2/1
3. A Man Thing 7/3
4. Speed for Thespians 14/5
5. The Accountant3/1

The accountant picks up its' pace as the rest stay the same.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Promises 11/7
2. Lalee's Kin 2/1
3. Children Underground 2/1
4. Murder on a Sunday Morning 11/4
5. War Photographer 10/3

Promises gains some speed as the rest stay the same.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Artists and Orphans 11/8
2. Sing! 8/5
3. Thoth 2/1

Artists and Sing pull ahead as Thoth maintains its' speed.

ART DIRECTION

1. Moulin Rouge 15/11
2. The Lord of the Rings 7/5
3. Gosford Park 11/4
4. Amélie 11/3
5. Harry Potter 14/3

Another extremely close race to the finish as Rouge loses ground and Lord gains. This is easily the closest race between first and second of all categories this year.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Man Who Wasn't There 13/12
2. The Lord of the Rings 5/3
3. Moulin Rouge 7/2
4. Black Hawk Down 4/1
5. Amélie 4/1

Lord continues to pick up its pace as The Man once again falls back a bit.

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Moulin Rouge even
2. The Lord of the Rings 13/7
3. Gosford Park 11/4
4. Harry Potter 19/5
5. The Affair of the Necklace 29/2

The pack maintains their pace except for Lord who speeds up again.

FILM EDITING

1. Moulin Rouge 5/3
2. The Lord of the Rings 12/7
3. Black Hawk Down 2/1
4. Memento 5/2
5. A Beautiful Mind 13/4

Black Hawk moves closer to surpassing Lord for second. Memento also gains speed while the rest stay the same.

MAKE-UP

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A Beautiful Mind 2/1
3. Moulin Rouge 12/5

Rouge gains speed as the other two stay at the same pace as before.

MUSIC (SCORE)

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
3. Monsters, Inc. 15/5
4. A.I. 47/12
5. Harry Potter 4/1

Monster moves up a spot to third place as A.I. falls behind. Lord should easily win this race.

MUSIC (SONG)

1. Kate & Leopold 4/3
2. Vanilla Sky 11/6
3. The Lord of the Rings 19/7
4. Monsters, Inc. 29/8
5. Pearl Harbor 36/7

The entire pack loses speed except for Kate who is only getting faster in the final stretch.

SOUND

1. The Lord of the Rings 4/3
2. Black Hawk Down 11/6
3. Pearl Harbor 11/5
4. Moulin Rouge 11/4
5. Amélie 14/3

Moulin and Amelie maintain pace as the rest gain some speed.

SOUND EDITING

1. Pearl Harbor 13/10
2. Monsters, Inc. 3/2

Pearl moves ahead as Monster pulls back.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A.I. 13/7
3. Pearl Harbor 5/2

A.I. loses ground as Pearl gains, though Lord will take this race to the bank.

So, I'm predicting A Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings will each walk away with five awards each as Moulin takes home three, the only other film to bring home multiple awards. Lord leads the spoiler pack with five second placepicks. Gosford stands in second place three times with Mind twice. Finally,Mind, Amelie, Harry Potter and Pearl are tied with two last place picks each.

Come back tomorrow for to see how I did, and how much better (or worse) I did this year compared to other years!

01:07 AM PST [Link] [Comment on this]

Monday, March 18, 2002

I promise to write and respond to comments (and emails) as soon as I can get to them but I thought I'd post this for what it's worth...

I've been climbing on roofs and ladders while painting the outside of my parent's house for the big impending move south in the next month or so. I've been packing boxes at both their house and mine. I've been lugging heavy objects all over the place. I've been climbing and scaling cliffs on my parent's land documenting the area in photos. Through all of this and more I remained fairly bruise free. Until yesterday evening when I performed in my second public ComedySportz match. It was a blast and most probably my last up here in Northern California.

Last night I discovered a very odd three inch scratch (though it's more signifigant than a scratch and less than a gash... perhaps it's a scrash?) and large bruises on my right leg.

After reviewing the video of the performance, I was able to figure out when and what caused these bruises. It was a combination of falling to the ground several times in one sketch and throwing myself from atop the ten foot or so tall stage wall six or seven times.

Art hurts.

12:07 AM PST [Link] [4 comments]

Saturday, March 16, 2002

Here's an update to my previous Oscar standings. I've also included my odds for winning standings to the right of each nominee. Look for my final predictions by next Saturday...

BEST PICTURE

1. A Beautiful Mind 9/8
2. The Lord of the Rings 15/8
3. Moulin Rouge 3/1
4. Gosford Park 15/4
5. In the Bedroom 19/4

Mind pulls ahead as Lord falls behind, further cementing the win for Mind as Moulin and Gosford slowly gain some footing, though not nearly enough to surpass even Lord.

BEST ACTOR

1. Russell Crowe 13/9
2. Denzel Washington 5/3
3. Tom Wilkinson 23/7
4. Will Smith 4/1
5. Sean Penn 9/2

Crowe slips slightly back as Washington gains some momentum, though not enough to lock a win... yet. Wilkinson moves up slightly as Smith and Penn fall further and further back.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Sissy Spacek 9/7
2. Halle Berry 2/1
3. Nicole Kidman 21/8
4. Judi Dench 47/12
5. Rene Zellweger 5/1

Spacek's lock is long gone, though she holds a decent lead still ahead of Berry who is quickly gaining speed. Though Kidman falls back slightly she still trails just behind Berry.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ian McKellen 9/8
2. Jim Broadbent 7/3
3. Ben Kingsley 23/9
4. Ethan Hawke 4/1
5. Jon Voight 37/8

McKellen increases his lead ahead of Broadbent and Kingsley who are both losing considerable ground. Hawke creeps slightly ahead though not nearly enough to catch up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Connelly even
2. Helen Mirren 7/3
3. Maggie Smith 16/5
4. Kate Winslet 15/4
5. Marisa Tomei 13/3

Conelly hasn't budged at all. Neither has Winslet who, along with Tomei, continue to be sure misses. Mirren moves ahead slightly though most definitely not enough to surpass Connelly.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Ron Howard 14/9
2. Robert Altman 15/8
3. Peter Jackson 7/3
4. Ridley Scott 25/6
5. David Lynch 29/6

Jackson falls behind, though still far ahead of Scott and Lynch. Both Howard and Altman have increased there leads with Howard just ahead of Altman.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Memento 6/5
2. Gosford Park 3/2
3. Amelie 35/9
4. Monster's Ball 4/1
5. The Royal Tenenbaums 4/1

Memento falls behind as Gosford gains speed. Tenenbaums falls to last place as Amelie jumps to the third slot in the final stretch.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. A Beautiful Mind 15/14
2. The Lord of the Rings 5/2
3. In the Bedroom 8/3
4. Shrek 11/3
5. Ghost World 29/6

Four of the five have fained momentum since last month allowing Mind to gain even more momentum as Lord falls behind. Bedroom is catching up to possibly take second place.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Amelie 12/11
2. No Mans Land 19/9
3. Lagaan 8/3
4. Son of the Bride 11/3
5. Elling 29/6

Amelie and Land lose some footing as Lagaan creeps up behind.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1. Shrek even
2. Monster's, Inc 19/10
3. Jimmy Neutron 3/1

This category remains simply stagnant with the exception of Monster's pulling slightly ahead of it's position last month.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. For the Birds 1/1
2. Fifty Percent Grey 8/3
3. Stubble Trouble 3/1
4. Give Up Yer Aul Sins 3/1
5. Strange Invaders 11/3

Birds remains the same as Grey falls behind.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Copy Shop 7/4
2. Gregor's Greatest Invention 2/1
3. A Man Thing 7/3
4. Speed for Thespians 14/5
5. The Accountant3/1

Copy Shop pulls ahead farther as it's competition loses standing.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Promises 5/3
2. Lalee's Kin 2/1
3. Children Underground 2/1
4. Murder on a Sunday Morning 11/4
5. War Photographer 10/3

Promises chances lessen as Lalee's moves ahead. Tied with Lalee's is Underground which is now starting to lose some ground.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Artists and Orphans 11/8
2. Sing! 7/4
3. Thoth 2/1

Artists pulls ahead, though right behind is Sing!

ART DIRECTION

1. Moulin Rouge 7/5
2. The Lord of the Rings 7/5
3. Gosford Park 11/4
4. Amélie 11/3
5. Harry Potter 14/3

Looks to be a photo finish with Moulin and Lord neck and neck.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Man Who Wasn't There 11/10
2. The Lord of the Rings 5/3
3. Moulin Rouge 7/2
4. Black Hawk Down 4/1
5. Amélie 4/1

The Man remains the leader as Lord in second picks up its pace.

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Moulin Rouge even
2. The Lord of the Rings 2/1
3. Gosford Park 11/4
4. Harry Potter 19/5
5. The Affair of the Necklace 29/2

Gosford picks up a little speed, though not enough to upset Moulin and Lord remaining one and two.

FILM EDITING

1. Moulin Rouge 5/3
2. The Lord of the Rings 12/7
3. Black Hawk Down 11/5
4. Memento 5/2
5. A Beautiful Mind 13/14

Lord gains as Moulin falls. Lord looks to surpass Moulin very soon as Black Hawk falls behind.

MAKEUP

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
3. Moulin Rouge 12/5

Lord remains strong though Mind gains some speed. Tied with Mind is Moulin which begins losing ground.

MUSIC (SCORE)

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A Beautiful Mind 11/5
3. A.I. 3/1
4. Monsters, Inc. 11/3
5. Harry Potter 4/1

Lord and A.I. remain stagnant at one and three with Mind at number two losing ground.

MUSIC (SONG)

1. Kate & Leopold 13/3
2. Vanilla Sky 8/5
3. The Lord of the Rings 2/1
4. Monsters, Inc. 14/5
5. Pearl Harbor 13/3

Lord stays the same directly behind Vanilla which gains speed as Kate, still in first, loses.

SOUND

1. The Lord of the Rings 11/8
2. Black Hawk Down 11/6
3. Pearl Harbor 11/5
4. Moulin Rouge 11/4
5. Amélie 14/3

Lord and Black gain even more of a lead behind the rest of the pack with Pearl and Moulin, both losing ground.

SOUND EDITING

1. Pearl Harbor 13/10
2. Monsters, Inc. 3/2

This is a neck and neck race with both contenders gaining ground over last month. Anything can happen here so far...

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Lord of the Rings even
2. A.I. 13/7
3. Pearl Harbor 5/2

Lord stays the same as A.I. and Pearl gain. Pearl has little chance to move up though A.I. still has a chance...

02:04 PM PST [Link] [3 comments]

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